This project seeks to evaluate the theory that the trend toward secularisation will eventually reverse itself for demographic reasons. Recent research on the 'second demographic transition' suggests that fertility rates are stabilising well below replacement levels in developed societies. However, one of the most important sections of the population with above-replacement fertility are the religious. In the absence of large-scale apostasy, these individuals will gradually increase their share of the population. Is this a mere demographic flight of fancy? Consider a number of examples which suggest otherwise: The early Christian church became dominant in the Roman empire in good measure through its lower mortality rates as compared with pagans. This allowed it to grow at 40 percent per decade for several centuries and thus expand from 40 converts to 6 million between 30 and 300 A.D. Recently, states which supported Bush in 2004 had a 12-point fertility advantage over Kerry states because white evangelicals have a 2:1 fertility advantage over secular Americans. The study uses quantitative techniques to test the link between religiosity, fertility and politics cross-nationally and over time. This is then integrated into bigger questions about the 'End of History' and future of liberal secularism.



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Whither the child? : causes and consequences of low fertility

Editor: Eric Kaufmann Date: 01 December 2012 Book

Sacralization by stealth : the religious consequences of low fertility in Europe

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 01 December 2012 Book chapter

"Go forth and multiply" : the politics of religious demography

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 16 August 2012 Book chapter

Political demography : how population changes are reshaping international security and national politics

Editor: Jack A. Goldstone Date: 16 August 2012 Book

The end of secularization in Europe? : a socio-demographic perspective

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 01 April 2012 Journal article

American political affiliation, 2003–43 : a cohort component projection

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 01 March 2012 Journal article

The micro-politics of European immigration : local government capacity and public service performance in England

Author: Rhys Andrews Date: 03 February 2011 Conference paper/presentation

The changing face of Israel

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 03 February 2011 Website

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The return of economic nationalism

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 03 February 2011 Website

Out of mouths of babes – religious will rise as secular birth rates fall

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 20 September 2010 Newspaper

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Population boom in third world provides a boost for religions

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 20 July 2010 Newspaper

Secularism, fundamentalism or Catholicism? : the religious composition of the United States to 2043

Author: Vegard Skirbekk Date: 01 January 2010 Journal article

Shall the religious inherit the earth?

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 01 January 2010 Newsletter

Europe's Muslim future

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 01 January 2010 Magazine

Shall the religious inherit the earth?

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 01 January 2010 Journal article

Uncompromising demography in a promised land : the growth of dissonant minorities and the escalation of demographic politics in Israel

Author: Richard Cincotta Date: 01 January 2010 Technical report

Sacralisation by stealth : the demography of de-secularisation

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 01 January 2010 Book chapter

Shall the religious inherit the earth? : demography and politics in the twenty-first century

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 01 January 2010 Book

The global war for souls

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 01 January 2009 Magazine

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The meaning of Huntington

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 01 January 2009 Magazine

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Europe's coming demographic revolution

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 01 January 2008 Article (submitted)

Human development and the demography of secularisation in global perspective

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 01 January 2008 Journal article

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Shall the religious inherit the earth

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 15 November 2007 Newspaper

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Is God returning to Europe

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 01 November 2007 Newspaper

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Parades ... could there soon be a deal?

Author: Eric Kaufmann Date: 11 July 2007 Newspaper

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Start date
14 November 2005
End date
13 November 2006
Grant holder
Dr Eric Kaufmann
Grant amount
£44,348.83
Grant reference
RES-163-25-0013
Discipline
Political Science
Political Science and International Studies
Grant type